THESIS ON MATHEMATICAL FREQUENCY
by J. F. Baker
Copyright: 1967
Farmers, businessmen, investors, gamblers, etc., are all concerned with whether a specific event will or will not occur. It is doubtful that any of the methods taught or that are in use at the present time produces the desired results in all fields of activity. A man of great experience in a given business may have developed a high degree of good judgment in foreseeing the future, and enjoys some success. Place this man in a different field of activity and he, depending upon the use of his good judgment is not so successful because his judgment is good only in the field in which it was developed.
Again, a man may depend upon the so-called laws of probability. This is not very specific. In using the formula taught in the schools, one may calculate the odds or chances that may occur in any given event. One would still have to use judgment as to whether the odds are favorable or not. You cannot succeed with judgment, except in a limited field. Probability suggests chance and chance suggests accident, etc. One who stands with the firm conviction that everything that happens or occurs does so because of a principle could not rely on probability, chance or accident. Is it not true that the word "accident" is used to describe an event about which our knowledge is so lacking that we do not know the cause or why it occurred? A number of years ago a magazine published an article entitled "Born to Crash" in which it was proven that a certain group of people (principally those whose mental reflexes were slow) always had automobile crashes, were still having crashes and would always have crashes. While another group of people, never had crashes and never would have crashes. Thus, it is doubtful if there is such a thing in reality as accident, chance or probability.
Some men say they make decisions regarding future events according to the so called "Law of Averages." If this means that in a series of events running into infinity, any specific event which has not occurred recently is bound to occur next, then this law is worthless. It is on record that the red and black on a roulette wheel have each come up 2l and 22 continuous times without the other showing. Even if the series of Events were limited in scope, as a deck of cards, this so-called law is useless except near the end when the last card can be predicted if all the cards which have shown previously have been memorized. It has been proved that in any series of events running into infinity, the events will occur on one side of the average line for a time and then will cross over and show on the other side, crossing back and forth as time goes on. But there is nothing to indicate when the events will average out equally.
In recent years considerable thought and effort has been given to the study of Extra Sensory Perception (E.S.P.). This has been described as a sixth sense which enables those who have it to mentally see and describe past and future events. If every event which occurs in the universe does occur according to a principle and follows definite frequency patterns, could it be that those who practice E.S.P. in foretelling future events subconsciously recognize the frequency pattern of the series of events with which they are concerned at the moment and are following the frequency pattern without recognizing it as such.
It is quite apparent that all the methods of forecasting the future, now in use, are of questionable value. This is because most are not based on any scientific principle. If every event that occurs is according to principle and not by accident, chance, odds, probability or E.S.P., then the method of forecasting such events must be based on some prescribed principle.
These notes are intended to describe the principle upon which Mathematical Frequency is based.
In 1923, during extensive research and study of Fire Department Hydraulics, the writer was intrigued by the appearance and reappearance of the same mathematical values in extended calculations. Laier, a study of this phenomenon led to the discovery of the principle of Mathematical Frequency. This principle may be stated as follows: the frequency with which a mathematical value appears in any series of mathematical values is proportional to the frequency with which the same mathematical value appeared in a previous, similar series of mathematical values. Note that it is mathematical value which must be considered. Any number which is merely an identification number will not suffice. It has no value. Therefore, any event in a series of similar events which have mathematical value or to which value can be attached can be forecast provided all elements of the events have appropriate value. It is the value which is forecast, not the event itself.
In 1938 a series of intensive tests and experiments lasting 28 years was begun in various gambling games as a means of learning more about the principle of Mathematical Frequency and to develop a positive formula for using the principle. Gambling games were used upon the advice of a college official because of the opportunity to observe a more rapid series of events running into infinity. It should be noted that in the usual casino games, Mathematical Frequency is of very limited use. All the numbers involved are identification numbers and as stated above have no value.
In legal pari-mutuel horse racing Mathematical Frequency is extremely successful, as there are a variety of ways in which mathematical value can be attached to each horse in the race. As a result of considerable experience in horse racing, the following four rules are listed as an indication of what is required to make a successful pari-mutuel wagering system. The rules are placed in order of their importance.
- The entire system must operate automatically, i.e., no decisions, no need for judgment.
- Sufficient capital. There will be losing races. Enough capital should be available to carry one over the losing period and continue with the progressive wagering.
- A proper progressive wagering system. One that progresses on losses from race to race and on profits from day to day.
- A reliable picking system. One that picks one out of four or five races is best. One that picks a winner in every race is not very profitable.
It is under the No. 4 rule where Mathematical Frequency is so successful. Referring to the principle as stated earlier, it will be noted that no reference is made to the order in which the events will occur. As a result of much trial and error, as there has been no precedent to follow, it was discovered that the matter of sequence must be considered. For example, two days of racing show winning mathematical values as follows:
| First Day | Second Day | ||
|---|---|---|---|
Race No
|
Winning Values
|
Race No
|
Winning Values
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
4
|
1
|
5
|
0
|
5
|
1
|
6
|
2
|
6
|
2
|
7
|
1
|
7
|
1
|
8
|
1
|
8
|
0
|
9
|
2
|
9
|
2
|
A simple Frequency chart will show results as follows:
| Values | First Day | Second Day |
|---|---|---|
1
|
4
|
4
|
2
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
-
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Although the second series is 90% the same as the first and conforms to the principle as stated, all that can be wagered on is that the second day will have the same number of values winning as the first. Hence the necessity for introducing the Sequence or Frequency Pattern. It will be noted that on the second day, the fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh and ninth races may be forecast by means of the Frequency Pattern of succeeding events repeating in the second series as indicated in the first series. This, then, conforms to the statement of principle if the words "pattern of Mathematical values" are used in the statement.
In the example given above, only the mathematical values represented by the figures 1, 2, 3, 0 are used. Care should be exercised in selecting the method of placing mathematical value on each horse in a race or on any other elements of an event in a series of events. When the winning values are tabulated on graph paper, the results should produce the typical biological curve. Any method which does not produce approximately 25% winners for the highest value, 20% winners for the second highest value and 15% winners for the third highest value, should not be used. All values other than the three highest should be represented by the "O". In fields of activity other than racing, it may be advisable to use more or less than the four evaluations used here. In any case, 60% or more of the winning values should be used.
The four evaluations used here may also be said to be the four elements of each event, one of which will occur in each race. The number of elements in each action has an important bearing on other matters than Mathematical Frequency Patterns, as indicated by the following table:
| Elements | Casino Odds | Progressive Steps |
|---|---|---|
2
|
1 to 1
|
3
|
3
|
2 to 1
|
4
|
4
|
3 to 1
|
5
|
5
|
4 to 1
|
6
|
6
|
5 to 1
|
7
|
7
|
etc.
|
etc.
|
In pari-mutuel wagering no one person controls the odds to be paid. This is determined by the way the public wagers. However, 3 to l odds is the approximate average odds paid by winners selected by Mathematical Frequency Pattern using the 1, 2, 3, 0 classification of values. The five step progression is also used with this classification. Thus a successful selection in any group of five races makes for a profitable day. Since all experimentation and testing ended in 1966, 90% to 95% of the racing days have been profitable.
Although most of the reference here has been to pari-mutuel wagering, it should be noted that the principles of Mathematical Frequency Patterns can be applied to forecasting any event in a series which has mathematical value or to which mathematical value can be applied. This is a universal principle.
Although most of the reference here has been to pari-mutuel wagering, it should be noted that the principles of Mathematical Frequency Patterns can be applied to forecasting any event in a series which has mathematical value or to which mathematical value can be applied. This is a universal principle.
--FINI --
